Chemical industry: the cost of ethylene method is high, and the import is reduced on schedule.
it is expected that the increase of import continuous price will be reduced in August, and the inhibition of high oil price on import will continue to be reflected Imported PVC is very expensive. The average price of PVC imports lags behind the current price. The spot CIF price in Northeast Asia has risen to $770 at the end of May and early June, and since then, the price has risen all the way, rising to more than $900 at the end of June and early July. Therefore, we believe that the average price of imported PVC in August will further rise, further supporting the domestic price. If we import it at $900, regardless of other costs, it is equivalent to more than 7300 yuan/ton of tax inclusive price in East China market, which has no competitive advantage. Therefore, we believe that the number of imported PVC will continue to decline in August
there is great pressure on imported VCM to produce PVC. Due to the influence of ethylene and chlorine, the price of imported VCM has also increased significantly. At present, the CIF price in Northeast Asia has been maintained at more than $720. Considering the historical price difference of vcm-pvc of at least $150, even without considering the import cost, the price corresponds to the market price including tax of at least 6700 yuan. Therefore, the cost pressure of PVC manufacturers importing VCM is huge, It will continue to support domestic PVC prices
investment suggestion: it is still in the first stage of recovery. After user verification, the price will rise slowly. We still maintain the judgment of the two-stage recovery of the PVC industry in the early stage. We believe that the PVC industry is still in the first stage of recovery. Under the condition that the actual demand has not been significantly expanded, cost promotion is still the most important factor to support the price rise. The rising cost of imported PVC and imported VCM enterprises will continue to support domestic PVC, It is conducive to the recovery of domestic calcium carbide enterprises by 2023, and the PVC industry will first experience the process of increasing the operating rate of calcium carbide method and slightly moving up the equilibrium price
then from the end of this year to next year, the recovery of PVC industry is expected to enter the second stage, and the demand is expected to show a substantial improvement. The price will return to the average level of the industry cycle since March 1 through the rise of afterburner, and the actual embodiment of the demand of the real estate industry will be the driving force of this stage
in the process of phased recovery of the industry, calcium carbide enterprises with a high degree of integration in the West will benefit the most. We still maintain the recommendation of INET and Hubei Yihua, and pay attention to Zhongtai chemical
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